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- The uncertainty that remains after the best possible analysis has been undertaken is what we call residual uncertainty—for example, the outcome of an ongoing regulatory debate or the performance attributes of a technology still in development. But quite a bit can often be known despite this.
www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty
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What is the residual uncertainty facing strategic decision makers?
Does uncertainty play a role in strategic decision-making?
Do decision-making limitations exist in the management of risk and uncertainty?
What is residual uncertainty?
The four levels of residual uncertainty. One of Courtney’s contributions to the literature of strategy was a four-part framework to help managers determine the level of uncertainty surrounding strategic decisions.
other words, at level 1, the residual uncertainty is irrelevant to making strategic decisions. Consider a major airline trying to develop a strategic response to the entry of a low-cost, no-frills competitor into one of its hub air-ports. Should it respond with a low-cost service Hugh Courtney is a consultant in McKinsey & Company’s Washington,
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Strategy Under Uncertainty. by. Hugh Courtney, Jane Kirkland, and. Patrick Viguerie. From the Magazine (November–December 1997) What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business...
The essence of strategy is that in making strategy decision makers face an unknown future. Limitations of time, money, and analytical power mean that residual uncertainty nearly always plays a role. Under conditions of perfect ignorance, the strategic choices decision makers would make would be entirely random.
- Alfred A. Marcus
- 2019
Jan 4, 2024 · Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making. Richard J. Arend. 406 Accesses. Abstract. Explains how and why uncertainty is everything. Argues that because uncertainty is ubiquitous—affecting every decision—a rational way of approaching it is needed.
The New Leadership: Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Great leaders are great decision makers. Faced with a daily barrage of decisions large and small, they know when to seek more information, when to consult with others, when to go with their gut, and even when to reframe the issue.
