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- Strategies that account for uncertainty are no less devoted to a bold, long-term ambition. But they do strive to balance commitment to this vision with an explicit set of options that prepare the company to seize the future as it unfolds.
www.bain.com/insights/a-strategy-for-embracing-uncertainty/
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Jun 1, 2000 · What follows is a framework for determining the level of uncertainty surrounding strategic decisions and for tailoring strategy to that uncertainty. Four levels of uncertainty. Available strategically relevant information tends to fall into two categories.
- A Strategy For Uncertainty
- Flexibility Not Ambiguity
- Moving with Purpose
A scenario-based strategic planning process proactively prepares for a range of futures by: 1. defining which uncertainties the company facesand cutting through the noise by separating them into those that matter and those that don’t (see Figure 1); 2. creating a set of probable scenariosfor how the future might unfold and determining the threats—a...
Effective scenario planning requires a degree of flexibility that makes some leadership teams uncomfortable. The breadth of strategic choices seems at odds with developing a coherent strategy the organization can understand and get behind. In practice, however, preparing for a set of different futures and defining a clear strategy aren’t mutually e...
There’s another important shift most large companies face when it comes to effective scenario planning: Not only do they need to get better at monitoring the right signposts, but they also need to link those insights to strategy. When a signal trips, in other words, the most effective planners are prewired to make a decision—let’s investigate this ...
Jun 27, 2022 · We need new frameworks to guide companies through uncertainty. And three key features emerge as common to these frameworks: the individual’s ability to cope with uncertainty; the organization’s...
Aug 12, 2015 · Creating a set of probable scenarios for how the future might unfold and discussing the threats— and opportunities—that these scenarios present. Devising a specific set of strategic options that balance commitment to a course of action with the flexibility to adjust and thrive amid different future scenarios.
- Embrace the Discomfort of Not Knowing. Throughout our careers, we are conditioned to come up with the answer — as in a single, definitive, correct answer.
- Distinguish Between Complicated and Complex. Most of us use the terms complex and complicated interchangeably when, in fact, they represent critically different circumstances.
- Let Go of Perfectionism. In a complex environment, the context is continually shifting; thus, aiming for perfection is futile. Instead, aim for progress, expect mistakes and recognize that you have the ability to continually course correct as needed.
- Resist Oversimplifications and Quick Conclusions. It’s tempting to oversimplify complex challenges, so that they seem less daunting. For example, breaking a challenge into its respective components can help you to feel like you have a greater command of the challenge at hand, but it can also narrow your view and obscure critical interdependencies, leading to a false sense of security.
Jun 3, 2022 · Such a volatile environment requires a new approach to devising strategy. Turning a world of uncertainty into a world of possibility requires a change of perspective, a new mindset on the...
Mar 23, 2018 · By understanding the chances your strategy has of succeeding before you start to execute it, and knowing how those odds change based on specific actions you take, you can tackle uncertainty with hard empirics, not guesswork or wishful thinking.
