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Aug 20, 2019 · The paper further identifies five characteristics of individual decision-makers that have been shown to impact their perceptions of uncertainty and their choice of uncertainty management approach.
- Sniazhana Sniazhko
- 2019
Jan 1, 2019 · The paper further identifies five characteristics of individual decision-makers that have been shown to impact their perceptions of uncertainty and their choice of uncertainty management...
However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty. Face up to uncertainty. Deconstruct the problem.
- P. H. Kaye, A. D. Smith, M. J. Strudwick, M. White, C. E. L. Bird, G. Aggarwal, T. Durkin, T. A. G. ...
- 2020
Apr 9, 2019 · Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis.
- Introduction
- Classifications of Uncertainty
- Nature of Uncertainty: Epistemic, Ontological Or Ambiguity
- Object of Uncertainty: Substance, Strategies Or Institutions
- Nine Lives of Uncertainty: Types and Strategies
- Discussion and Conclusion
- References
Governing environmental issues is increasingly characterized by social–ecological complexity and uncertainties (Torfing, Peters, Pierre, & Sorensen, 2012). Environmental issues, including climate change, food insecurity, freshwater availability, nature conservation and natural resource depletion, require the active involvement of public and private...
Many different types of classifications to catalog uncertainty exist. As early as 1990, Funtowicz and Ravetz (1990, p. 22) identified the ‘increasingly popular activity of classifying uncertainties’. The Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree (NUSAP) system they proposed is focused on the uncertainty of scientific measurements, values and n...
Building on earlier research and classifications discussed in the previous section (Brugnach, Dewulf, Henriksen, & Van der Keur, 2011; Dewulf et al., 2005; Koppenjan & Klijn, 2004; Kwakkel et al., 2010), we distinguish the nature of uncertainty into three types. The main reasons for distinguishing between ontological uncertainty, epistemic uncertai...
Clearly, the substance, content or knowledge of environmental issues is a relevant object of uncertainty, but not the only one. Of critical importance are the decisions other actors are going to take in relation to their own decisions, and those are often hard to predict (Edelenbos & van Meerkerk, 2015; Klijn & Koppenjan, 2016; Torfing et al., 2012...
Combining the three natures of uncertainty and the three objects of uncertainty creates a three by three matrix, which we refer to as nine different types of uncertainty (see Table 1). Each of these captures a different type of uncertainty that is relevant to complex decision-making. Each of the nine uncertainties also requires a different approach...
Despite the wealth of available knowledge about environmental issues, uncertainties are omnipresent in environmental governance. Where literature systematically has biases for specific types or objects of uncertainty in decision-making (Jensen & Wu, 2016), our comprehensive framework of nine types of uncertainty allows for a more thorough understan...
Prof. Dr. Art Dewulfis Professor of sensemaking and decision-making in policy processes, at the Public Administration and Policy Group at Wageningen University and Research, the Netherlands. He obtained a PhD in Organisational Psychology (K.U. Leuven, 2006). He studies complex problems of natural resource governance with a focus on interactive proc...
The New Leadership: Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Great leaders are great decision makers. Faced with a daily barrage of decisions large and small, they know when to seek more information, when to consult with others, when to go with their gut, and even when to reframe the issue.
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Aug 27, 2023 · The decision tree technique is found to be the most popular tool used for decision-making under uncertainty. I will elucidate the basic elements of a decision tree, how it works, how probability concepts are applied to approximate outcomes, and how it facilitates decision-making.
