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Aug 20, 2019 · Uncertainty is a key contextual factor that affects the decision-making of multinational corporations on many types of international operation.
- Sniazhana Sniazhko
- 2019
Aug 28, 2020 · When we feel such heightened uncertainty, our decision-making processes can break down. We may become paralyzed and afraid to act, or we may act on the basis of bias, emotion, and intuition...
May 24, 2023 · Common behaviors and individual differences in decision-making and learning under uncertainty. Predominant decision biases, such as risk aversion, may be attributed to efficient coding by a computationally limited brain (Glimcher & Tymula, 2023; Polanía et al., 2019).
High levels of uncertainty don’t mean we have to leave our decisions to chance. Over the four days of the Effective Decision Making program, participants learn tools and techniques to improve their process.
- 1 Continuum of Pure Uncertainty and Certainty
- 2 Risk and Uncertainty
- 3 Decision Making and Uncertainty
- 4 Types of Uncertainty in Decision Making
- 5 Neurological Correlates of Uncertainty and Decision Making
- 6 Limitations of Decision Making Under Pure Uncertainty
- 7 Handling Uncertainty in Decision Making
- 8 Implications For Decision Making Under Uncertainty
This continuum serves two poles: deterministic model and pure uncertainty. Problems under risk are represented in the area between these two poles (Taghavifard, Damghani, & Moghaddam, 2009) (Refer Fig. 1.1). This model explains that the degree of certainty fluctuates depending upon the amount of available knowledge a person has regarding the proble...
Risk is an expression of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of an outcome. Risk assessment of a situation typically involves uncertainty analysis of beneficial outcomes. Uncertainty explains the quality of knowledge we possess regarding the risk involved in the situation. We try to reduce uncertainties, but a risk-based approach to decisio...
We encounter the process of selection and choosing among several options daily. Decision making requires thoughtful activity, critical analysis, and action towards the problem situation. As correctly stated by Franklin G. Moore (1964), “decision making is the blend of thinking, deciding and acting.” Decision making is also defined as a capacity to ...
1.1.4.1 First- and Second-Order Uncertainty
First-order uncertainty portrays arbitrary variety in the results whereas second-order uncertainty represents the imprecision of information concerning the boundaries themselves (Halpern, Weinstein, Hunink, & Gazelle, 2000). The branch of statistics and economics has described second-order uncertainty as probability density functions over (first-order) probabilities (Sundgren & Karlsson, 2013). Another state of uncertainty, risk, includes the possibility of an undesired outcome. Frank Knight...
1.1.4.2 Uncertainty from the Ethical Perspective
Tannert, Elvers, and Jandrig (2007) presented a border classification of uncertainty from an ethical perspective. Objective uncertainty classifies epistemological uncertainty and ontological uncertainty (Van Asselt & Rotmans, 2002). Epistemological uncertainty is produced by holes in the information zone and the researcher tries to fill this gap. The decision maker needs to rely on existing knowledge to reach a solution and work on remaining uncertainties. Ontological uncertaintyis brought ab...
1.1.4.3 Uncertainty Based on S-R-O Rules
The relationship between a stimulus (S) and a response (R) is allied with a positive or negative outcome (O). Earlier experience facilitates the structuring of a stable illustration of S-R-O rule and helps in decision making (Ridderinkhof, Van Den Wildenberg, Segalowitz, & Carter, 2004; Seymour, Daw, Dayan, Singer, & Dolan, 2007). An unexpected and fundamental change in these rules invalidates the previous experienced-based learning and induce uncertainty. Bland and Schafer (2012) identified...
Decision making under uncertain conditions has additionally received consideration in the field of cognitive neuroscience. Preuschoff, Mohr, and Ming (2013) summarised the findings of different papers in the field of computational neurosciences and decision making under risk or uncertainty and argued that uncertainty is embedded in our social conte...
Conflict in decision making arises in the presence of various options, and a decision maker tries to resolve this by deciding under uncertainty as a zero-sum, two-person game such as poker, chess, or gambling where there are one winner and one loser. In decision making under pure uncertainty, the decision maker is unaware of the nature and probabil...
Lipshitz and Strauss (1997) suggested three strategies to handle uncertainty: suppression, reduction, and acknowledgement. The strategies of suppression include denial and ignoring uncertainty. This strategy is mostly based on traditional decision-making approaches and past experience but lacks applicability in the context of future research and un...
Uncertainty affects the perception of different issues involved in problem situations at individual and societal levels. Uncertain situations variously affect the decision maker. To understand the different sources of uncertainty and estimate its magnitude is also a tiresome task and exposed to subjective judgement. But one cannot avoid the uncerta...
- Smriti Pathak, Roshan Lal Dewangan, Sachi Nandan Mohanty
- 2021
A strategic decision comes with a high degree of uncertainty, a large likelihood that things will change, difficulty in assessing costs and benefits, and a result of several simultaneous outcomes. A tactical decision comes with a clear objective, a low degree of uncertainty, and relatively clear costs and benefits.
Jan 4, 2024 · Explains the general impacts of uncertainty on the world, at three levels. Describes the impacts on decision-makers and their relevant stakeholders, focusing on the immediate outcomes. Describes the impacts in terms of reacting to uncertainty in decisions.
