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Aug 28, 2020 · When we feel such heightened uncertainty, our decision-making processes can break down, and we may act based on bias, emotion, and intuition instead of logic and fact. The author offers a four ...
- 6 Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty
Read more on Decision making and problem solving or related...
- 6 Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty
- Embrace the Discomfort of Not Knowing. Throughout our careers, we are conditioned to come up with the answer — as in a single, definitive, correct answer.
- Distinguish Between Complicated and Complex. Most of us use the terms complex and complicated interchangeably when, in fact, they represent critically different circumstances.
- Let Go of Perfectionism. In a complex environment, the context is continually shifting; thus, aiming for perfection is futile. Instead, aim for progress, expect mistakes and recognize that you have the ability to continually course correct as needed.
- Resist Oversimplifications and Quick Conclusions. It’s tempting to oversimplify complex challenges, so that they seem less daunting. For example, breaking a challenge into its respective components can help you to feel like you have a greater command of the challenge at hand, but it can also narrow your view and obscure critical interdependencies, leading to a false sense of security.
- How Does Uncertainty Affect Decision Making?
- Decision Making Under Stress
- Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
- Decision Making Under Uncertainty Examples
Increased risk aversion:When faced with uncertainty, decision makers may become more risk averse and choose safer, less innovative options with fewer risks.Difficulty in weighing options:Uncertainty can make it more difficult to weigh the pros and cons of different options, as it can be hard to predict the outcomes of other choices.Incomplete information:When information is limited or unavailable, decision makers may have to make decisions based on incomplete data or assumptions, resulting in less informed choices.Increased complexity:Uncertainty can increase the complexity of decision making, as decision makers may have to consider a broader range of factors and potential outcomes.Prioritizing self-care: Managers should prioritize their well-being and engage in self-care activities, such as exercise, sleep, and relaxation, to manage stress and maintain their ability to think...Gathering information:Managers should gather as much information as possible to help inform their decision making. This can include researching, seeking input from experts or stakeholders, and usin...Seeking advice:Managers can benefit from seeking the advice of trusted colleagues or mentors to gain a different perspective and help inform their decisions.Taking breaks:When under stress, it can be helpful to take breaks to clear the mind and refocus. This can include taking a walk, engaging in mindfulness practices, or simply stepping away from deci...Scenario planning: This approach involves creating multiple scenarios to explore different possible future outcomes and consider the implications of each scenario for the organization.Prototyping and experimentation:In situations of deep uncertainty, it can be helpful to test potential solutions through prototyping and experimentation. This allows managers to test ideas and gath...Flexibility and agility:When faced with decision making under uncertainty, managers should aim to be flexible and agile in their decision making, as the situation may change rapidly and require a d...Collaboration:Collaborating with others, such as colleagues, experts, or stakeholders, can help managers gather a broader range of perspectives and knowledge to make informed decisions.Hiring a new employee: When a manager is faced with the task of hiring a new employee, there may be uncertainty about the individual’s fit with the company culture, their ability to perform the job...Launching a new product:A manager may have to do decision making under uncertainty when launching a new product. For example, they may be unsure about the product’s potential market demand, competi...Mergers and acquisitions:A manager may face uncertainty when considering a merger or acquisition. For example, they may be unsure about the compatibility of the two organizations, the impact on emp...Uncertainty can also lead us to reward the wrong things. “Leaders may reward good outcomes rather than good decisions, and punish bad outcomes rather than bad decisions. Many managers fail to distinguish between good and bad decisions because they are so focused on outcomes,” says Schweitzer. Risk aversion is another challenge that emerges ...
- Take a breath. Pause and take a breath, literally. According to research by Vincent P. Ferrera, Jack Grinband and Tobias Teichert, the simple act of pausing, even for as little as 50 to 100 milliseconds, allows the brain to focus on the most relevant information.
- Involve more people. Amid uncertainty, leaders often feel an urge to limit authority to those at the top, with a small team making the big decisions behind closed doors.
- Make the critical small choices. Some decisions that seem small or routine at first can have large, long-term, strategic implications. They can be hard to spot, but leaders must look for them.
- Set up a nerve center. When making a high-stakes decision, it’s important to focus attention on the issue at hand. That means focusing on strategic, rather than tactical, decisions.
According to statistician George Chacko, decision making is the "commitment of resources today for results tomorrow." As such, decisions are usually made in a situation of some uncertainty, because we can never be completely sure what tomorrow will bring. For example, imagine you were trying to decide between two candidates for a new sales job ...
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Aug 27, 2023 · Decision diagram (or decision tree) is a popular tool for people in making decision under uncertainty. In its basic concept, decision diagram composes of decision options (decision points), event outcome, probability, evaluation unit, and evaluation dates. To facilitate analysis, all decisions and event outcomes are traced in their ...
