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5 days ago · Perhaps a bigger pitfall, according to new Berkeley Haas research that examined the longest-running survey of professional forecasters, is that these predictions tend to be overly precise. Forecasters reported 53% confidence in the accuracy of their forecasts, but were correct only 23% of the time, the researchers found.
Oct 16, 2022 · We make predictions about the future based on pattern recognition, celebrating the successes as a result of skill while attributing mistakes to bad fortune.
May 7, 2019 · As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Read: What was the worst prediction of all time?
Aug 30, 2024 · Posted on August 30, 2024 9:20 AM by Andrew. Political scientists Justin Grimmer, Dean Knox, and Sean Westwood released a paper that begins: Probabilistic election forecasts dominate public debate, drive obsessive media discussion, and influence campaign strategy.
Feb 2, 2015 · “Prediction is very difficult,” the old chestnut goes, “especially about the future.” And for years, social science agreed. Numerous studies detailed the forecasting failures of even so ...
2 days ago · By Rob Wells / Made by History. September 25, 2024 9:00 AM EDT. P olls are a centerpiece of our political news, especially as we get closer to Election Day. Journalists and forecasters will lean ...
Jan 1, 2024 · From Trump to Tesla and Oppenheimer to Ohtani, here are our predictions for 2024 — written by Vox’s Future Perfect team.
