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Analyze the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data. MEDIA: Please attribute rate probabilities used in your reporting to “CME FedWatch.”.
Get an overview of how to read and use the CME FedWatch Tool to predict rate hike increase probability. Learn more.
Apr 25, 2023 · View the methodology behind the CME FedWatch Tool and how the probabilities of rate hikes or cuts are determined based the market pricing of Fed Fund futures.
Using this information based on the federal funds rate, CME Group created the CME FedWatch Tool to act as a barometer for the market’s expectation of potential changes to the fed funds target rate while assessing potential Fed movements around FOMC meetings.
Sep 21, 2023 · The CME FedWatch Tool calculates the probability of each outcome (no change, increase, or decrease) while accounting for the market volatility and uncertainty inherent in the fed funds futures...
The FedWatch tool from CME Group has emerged as a reliable resource for determining Federal Reserve rate moves. Who’s using it, and how does it work?
The graph below was created using data downloaded from CME’s FedWatch tool on its website and includes the % probability of the target Fed Fund rate being 450-475 (which is what it currently is), 475-500 (a hike of 25 basis points) and 500-525 (a hike of 50 basis points) after tomorrow’s meeting conclusion. As you can see, none of these ...
