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Clear enough future
- Level 1: Clear enough future At this level an organization can develop a single forecast of the future that is precise enough for strategy development. Even so, the prediction will not be exact, to the degree that all businesses deal with uncertainty, but it will be enough to shape the strategy into a single direction.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategy_and_uncertainty
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Jun 1, 2000 · 1. Level one: A clear enough future. The residual uncertainty is irrelevant to making strategic decisions at level one, so managers can develop a single forecast that is a sufficiently precise basis for their strategies.
What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? Some executives seek to shape the future with high-stakes bets.
Aug 12, 2015 · Creating a set of probable scenarios for how the future might unfold and discussing the threats— and opportunities—that these scenarios present. Devising a specific set of strategic options that balance commitment to a course of action with the flexibility to adjust and thrive amid different future scenarios.
Dec 1, 2008 · In level one, there is a clear, single view of the future; in level two, a limited set of possible future outcomes, one of which will occur; in level three, a range of possible future outcomes; and in level four, a limitless range of possible future outcomes.
This article explains how to make crucial distinctions among the levels of uncertainty managers face, and then how to choose a strategic posture appropriate for that level. This strategy framework helps managers to tailor a portfolio of actions--comprising big bets, options, and no-regrets moves--to the uncertainty at hand.
Jul 20, 2021 · A strategy for uncertainty. A scenario-based strategic planning process proactively prepares for a range of futures by: defining which uncertainties the company faces and cutting through the noise by separating them into those that matter and those that don’t (see Figure 1);
May 1, 2024 · In a rapidly changing and increasingly complex world, organisations face significant uncertainty when analysing markets, selecting strategies, and developing an enduring competitive advantage.
