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The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction .
- Allan J. Lichtman
- 1996
The Keys to the White House are a historically based prediction system that retrospectively has accounted for the popular-vote winners of every U.S. presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively has forecast the popular-vote winners of the presidential elections thereafter.
- Allan J. Lichtman
2 days ago · The 13 Keys to the White House, developed by Distinguished Professor of History Allan J. Lichtman at American University, is an analytical framework for predicting the outcome of American presidential elections.
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Oct 27, 2020 · The Keys to the White House is a historical-based index system for predicting the results of American presidential elections that has been successful since 1984. The Keys system gauges the strength and performance of the party holding the White House.
- Allan Lichtman
- 2020
May 11, 2020 · Keys to the White House: Predicting the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. What quantitative historian Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” forecast, what to watch and why. Doug Samuelson. SHARE: PRINT ARTICLE: https://doi.org/10.1287/orms.2020.05.11. According to quantitative historian Allan Lichtman, Joe Biden will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Jul 25, 2024 · Voices of Reason spoke with Lichtman about his background, how the system came about, why the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris salvaged one of the keys for Democrats, and discussed prediction modeling and polls.
