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Jun 11, 2024 · There is a 64-in-100 chance that Biden wins the national popular vote. See a new scenario. 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as...
Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the probable electoral-vote...
Jul 16, 2024 · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page.
6 days ago · The election will be less a popularity contest than a referendum on which man Americans think is the least bad option. Our election forecast shows the chances each has of winning. Our latest...
2024 Presidential Election Forecasts. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 Presidential forecast.
5 days ago · The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
The Economist’s statistical forecast of American presidential elections has returned for its second contest in 2024. Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by...
Jul 11, 2024 · There is great interest in foreseeing the outcome of the 2024 election. In light of this, the American Presidency Project presents instructive graphs comparing incumbent President Biden with prior incumbents both who won and who lost their bid for reelection.
6 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
